Beyond the individual greatness of stars, NBA playoff series are won and lost by great units. While depth and lineup versatility are critical in the modern NBA, excellent synergy among an elite five-man unit that fits the matchup is critical. Shrewd lineup decisions from Mark Daigneault and Rick Carlisle could prove critical for the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers in the NBA Finals.
Let’s break down one lineup from each team that could swing this series.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Lu Dort, Alex Caruso and Jalen Williams
For much of the year, Oklahoma City rolled out a historic defense night after night without any true centers. Even when Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein weren’t on the floor, the Thunder dominated opponents, regardless of their size. They’ve largely moved away from those small-ball lineups in the playoffs, though.
In the regular season, the Thunder logged 1,975 possessions without any of their traditional bigs on the floor (Holmgren, Hartenstein, Jaylin Williams), good for 25.3 percent of their total possessions. That number has dipped dramatically in the playoffs, only recording 64 small-ball possessions, marking a meager 4.3 percent of their total.
Oklahoma City went small by necessity in the regular season, as Hartenstein and Holmgren both missed significant chunks of the season. Their three postseason opponents thus far all featured a towering frontcourt. There wasn’t much room for no-big lineups against Jaren Jackson Jr., Zach Edey, Nikola Jokic, Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert.
The Pacers, unlike their three Western Conference foes, don’t rely on size and girth in the frontcourt. Myles Turner provides solid center play but beyond him, Indiana has relied on Thomas Bryant and Tony Bradley to fill their rotation. Indiana would rather play makeshift frontcourts with Obi Toppin and Pascal Siakam rounding out their bigs.
Our featured lineup — Gilgeous-Alexander, Wallace, Dort, Caruso and Williams — has played just 18 possessions in the postseason and 74 in the regular season. Fortunately, seven of those possessions came against Indiana during their late March matchup. Let’s break those possessions down and see what we can glean from them.
Late in the second quarter, Alex Caruso checked in for Hartenstein. Indiana went zone, which we’ll likely see from both teams during the Finals, and Caruso punished the defense’s underbelly with a smooth pull-up. Note Wallace and Williams cutting through as Caruso catches the ball to pull the help away from him:
After the made basket, Aaron Nesmith bounds up the floor for an easy transition bucket. The Thunder must key in on Indiana’s open floor attack, especially after made baskets, where Haliburton and company love to push the pace:
Gilgeous-Alexander cans a step-back triple on Oklahoma City’s next trip down, generating a clean look off a Dort screen. The Thunder will often screen with Haliburton’s matchup and force him to guard. Indiana took the bait here and the traffic helped open a crease for Gilgeous-Alexander to pull:
Oklahoma City’s small-ball lineup allows it to switch freely against Indiana’s screening and motion. The Thunder cleanly switch this three-man action, finishing with the often impregnable Williams on Andrew Nembhard, who loses the ball and ignites a fast break:
Indiana’s final offensive possession of this stretch ends with a Toppin drive off the catch for an easy finish. In those 74 regular-season possessions against this lineup, opponents shot 75 percent at the hoop. If the Thunder botch a coverage like Dort and Wallace do here, there won’t be much resistance at the basket:
This sequence concludes with Indiana taking its foul to give on Gilgeous-Alexander. Nembhard checks Gilgeous-Alexander well beyond half-court, something we’ll almost certainly see in the Finals:
Those seven possessions all came without Turner on the floor. The Thunder will likely turn to their small-ball lineup when Turner sits. Indiana’s propensity to punish bigger lineups with its blinding offense makes these smaller lineups viable. In the playoffs, Oklahoma City’s double-big starting lineup hasn’t been stellar (plus-2.3 net rating in 359 possessions).
The small lineup’s spacing should open driving lanes for Oklahoma City to exploit without Turner on the floor defending the rim. Indiana could dare Dort, Wallace and Williams (who all have converted under 33 percent of their playoff threes) to make open threes before adjusting, though they generally help more conservatively on drives than many defenses.
Although we haven’t seen much of this lineup in the playoffs, the Thunder will adapt to the matchup in front of them. Daigneault is no stranger to critical postseason adjustments. Benching his excellent big men for longer stretches than normal could help the Thunder counter Indiana’s strengths on both sides of the court.
Indiana Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner
Are we cheating the spirit of this exercise by picking Indiana’s starting lineup? Despite their productive bench, the Pacers depend on their starting group more than it may appear. Indiana’s bench players provide valuable changeups, but the Pacers won’t ever close with a different lineup.
The Pacers’ first five has logged 503 possessions this postseason, comprising 33 percent of their total possessions. Among conference semifinalists, only the Denver Nuggets (43.4 percent) relied on their starting lineup more often than the Pacers.
Carlisle has good reason for playing that lineup; in the playoffs, they’re running teams out of the gym (plus-16.2 net rating). It’s by far their most potent and valuable lineup, outpacing any other group with a meaningful possession total.
That lineup offers the Pacers the most options out of any against Oklahoma City’s varied roster. Turner and Siakam should hold up against Hartenstein and Holmgren well enough defensively for Indiana to remain afloat. Turner, Indiana’s only true rim protector, will help defang a Thunder offense powered by Gilgeous-Alexander’s drives.
Siakam’s versatility to cover multiple positions and help on drives is especially key, coming off a series where he held a much larger Karl-Anthony Towns to 40.7 percent shooting with three assists and six turnovers while matched up against him. Nembhard and Nesmith both navigate screens as well as any defenders in the league and can help the Pacers dictate defensive coverages.
A menacing Oklahoma City defense will challenge Indiana’s movement offense, forcing the Pacers to rely on more isolation, post-up and standstill driving creation than usual. Indiana’s starting lineup in the playoffs has made 48 percent of its mid-range shots, particularly leaning on Siakam’s artistry.
In two regular season games against the Thunder, Siakam went an underwhelming 3-of-7 from midrange. Crowding Siakam with endless length and denying him inside position forced him to space the floor more often and settle for precarious jumpers inside the arc.
Siakam mid-range struggles vs OKC pic.twitter.com/3dej0v1D4G
— bjpfclips (@bjpfclips) June 5, 2025
Siakam should bounce back from midrange, especially in his matchups with Hartenstein and Gilgeous-Alexander. His tough shotmaking against a heavy switching defense without any true weak links to exploit will bail the Pacers out of sticky situations.
Haliburton’s exceptional 3-point shot creation also bails Indiana out at times. He’ll likely hunt threes with Holmgren and Hartenstein switched onto him as he did against Towns, Jarrett Allen and Brook Lopez in prior rounds. Oklahoma City hasn’t yet faced a team shooting the ball like Indiana, which could trouble its aggressive gap help.
Pairing Haliburton with his four best offensive teammates forms the most balanced offensive unit of any team the Thunder have faced, rivaled only by the Nuggets (which were without a healthy Michael Porter Jr.). Haliburton’s ing cast is better than Anthony Edwards’, which will make it tougher for Oklahoma City to deny and blitz him than the Minnesota Timberwolves could last round.
The Pacers will need a heroic bench series to stand a chance against the Thunder. Their reserves must compete with Oklahoma City’s historic depth. But their starting unit powers it all. That group must adjust and thrive throughout the series if Indiana wishes to push the Thunder, let alone win these Finals.
